段落16｜一次AI调用的能耗
英文原文
As datacenter production gets automated, the cost of intelligence should eventually converge to near the cost of electricity. (People are often curious about how much energy a ChatGPT query uses; the average query uses about 0.34 watt‑hours, about what an oven would use in a little over one second, or a high‑efficiency lightbulb would use in a couple of minutes. It also uses about 0.000085 gallons of water; roughly one fifteenth of a teaspoon.)
中文翻译
随着数据中心生产自动化，最终智能服务的成本会无限趋近于电费本身。（很多人好奇一次ChatGPT提问消耗多少能源：单次平均约0.34瓦时，大概是烤箱一秒多钟的耗电量，或是节能灯泡几分钟的用电量。同时会消耗约0.000085加仑的水，大约十五分之一茶匙。）
段落17｜失业阵痛，但社会整体会快速富足
英文原文
The rate of technological progress will keep accelerating, and it will continue to be the case that people are capable of adapting to almost anything. There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we’ll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before.
中文翻译
技术进步会持续加速，而人类向来拥有极强的适应能力。转型必然伴随阵痛，很多岗位会彻底消失；但与此同时，整个世界会快速变得无比富足，我们终于可以认真讨论从前根本不敢想象的全新社会政策。
段落18｜人类独有的优势：彼此关怀
英文原文
People have a long‑term important and curious advantage over AI: we are hard‑wired to care about other people and what they think and do, and we don’t care very much about machines.
中文翻译
对比AI，人类拥有一项长期、珍贵、独特的优势：我们与生俱来就会关心其他人，在意他人的想法与行动，而我们并不会对机器产生同等的牵挂。
段落19｜对未来工作形态的想象
英文原文
A subsistence farmer from a thousand years ago would look at what many of us do and say we have fake jobs, and think that we are just playing games to entertain ourselves since we have plenty of food and unimaginable luxuries. I hope we will look at the jobs a thousand years in the future and think they are very fake jobs, and I have no doubt they will feel incredibly important and satisfying to the people doing them.
中文翻译
如果让一千年前自给自足的农民来看今天很多人的工作，他会觉得这些都是“虚假的工作”，认为我们衣食无忧、拥有难以想象的奢侈品，每天只是自娱自乐。我希望千年之后的人类回望我们现在，也会觉得我们今天的工作很“虚”，而对于那时的当事人而言，他们的工作依旧充满价值与满足感。
段落20｜未来的各种可能性：物理突破、太空殖民、脑机接口
英文原文
The rate of new wonders being achieved will be immense. It’s hard to even imagine today what we will have discovered by 2035; maybe we will go from solving high‑energy physics one year to beginning space colonization the next year; or from a major materials science breakthrough one year to true high‑bandwidth brain‑computer interfaces the next year. Many people will choose to live their lives in much the same way, but at least some people will probably decide to “plug in”.
中文翻译
新奇迹诞生的速度会极其迅猛。我们今天很难想象，到2035年人类会取得哪些发现：或许一年之内我们攻克高能物理难题，第二年就启动太空殖民；或是一年实现材料科学重大突破，次年就落地真正高带宽脑机接口。很多人依旧会选择和现在差不多的生活方式，但也会有一部分人选择“接入”数字世界。
段落21｜奇点不是瞬间爆炸，是缓缓爬升的长弧
英文原文
Looking forward, this sounds hard to wrap our heads around. But probably living through it will feel impressive but manageable. From a relativistic perspective, the singularity happens bit by bit, and the merge happens slowly. We are climbing the long arc of exponential technological progress; it always looks vertical looking forward and flat going backwards, but it’s one smooth curve.
中文翻译
向前展望，这一切似乎难以想象。但当我们亲身经历这个时代的时候，感受会是震撼，但尚可承受。从亲历者的视角来看，奇点是一点点降临，融合是缓慢发生的。我们正在沿着指数增长的长弧向上攀爬；向前看仿佛是垂直飞升，回头看却又显得平缓，本质是一条顺滑的曲线。
段落22｜两大核心任务：解决对齐 + 广泛分配超级智能
英文原文
There are serious challenges to confront along with the huge upsides. We do need to solve the safety issues, technically and societally, but then it’s critically important to widely distribute access to superintelligence given the economic implications. The best path forward might be something like:
1. Solve the alignment problem, meaning that we can robustly guarantee that we get AI systems to learn and act towards what we collectively really want over the long‑term.
2. Then focus on making superintelligence cheap, widely available, and not too concentrated with any person, company, or country.
中文翻译
巨大机遇之外，我们也需要面对严峻挑战。我们必须从技术与社会层面解决安全问题；考虑到巨大的经济影响力，让超级智能普惠大众至关重要。最好的前进路线大概分为两步：
1. 解决对齐问题：可靠地保证AI长期向着人类集体真正想要的目标学习、行动。
（文中举例：社交媒体推荐算法就是对齐失败的例子，它擅长让你不停刷内容，利用大脑弱点，违背人的长期意愿）
2. 让超级智能变得廉价、人人可用，不要让权力过度集中在某个人、某家公司或是某个国家手中。
段落23｜社会韧性、用户自由，提前讨论边界
英文原文
Society is resilient, creative, and adapts quickly. If we can harness the collective will and wisdom of people, then although we’ll make plenty of mistakes and some things will go really wrong, we will learn and adapt quickly and be able to use this technology to get maximum upside and minimal downside. Giving users a lot of freedom, within broad bounds society has to decide on, seems very important. The sooner the world can start a conversation about what these broad bounds are and how we define collective alignment, the better.
中文翻译
人类社会拥有强大韧性、创造力与快速适应能力。只要我们凝聚人类共同的意志与智慧，就算会犯下很多错误、经历一些严重事故，我们依旧能够快速学习调整，最大化技术收益，最小化风险。在全社会共同划定的宽泛边界之内，给予用户充分自由非常重要。全世界越早开始讨论这些边界、定义人类集体目标对齐，就越好。
段落24｜“创意者”的时代到来
英文原文
We (the whole industry, not just OpenAI) are building a brain for the world. It will be extremely personalized and easy for everyone to use; we will be limited by good ideas. For a long time, technical people in the startup industry have made fun of “the idea guys”; people who had an idea and were looking for a team to build it. It now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun.
中文翻译
整个行业（不只是OpenAI）正在为全世界打造一颗大脑。它会高度个性化、人人易用；未来唯一会限制我们的，就只剩下好创意本身。长期以来，创业圈的技术从业者常常调侃“只会空想的点子党”——只有想法，需要找人帮忙落地。而在我看来，属于创意者的时代马上就要到来。
段落25｜OpenAI定位：超级智能研究公司
英文原文
OpenAI is a lot of things now, but before anything else, we are a superintelligence research company. We have a lot of work in front of us, but most of the path in front of us is now lit, and the dark areas are receding fast. We feel extraordinarily grateful to get to do what we do.
中文翻译
如今的OpenAI身兼多重使命，但首要定位，是一家超级智能研究公司。前路还有大量工作，但绝大多数道路已经被照亮，未知的黑暗区域正在快速消退。我们无比感恩，能够投身这份事业。
结尾
英文原文
Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp. This may sound crazy to say, but if we told you back in 2020 we were going to be where we are today, it probably sounded more crazy than our current predictions about 2030.
May we scale smoothly, exponentially and uneventfully through superintelligence.
中文翻译
“智力服务廉价到几乎不计成本”的未来，已经触手可及。这话听起来很疯狂，但如果我们在2020年告诉大家我们会走到今天这一步，当时听上去只会比我们现在对2030年的预测更加离谱。
愿我们平稳、指数式、平安地跨过超级智能时代。